Influence factor analysis
I. enabling factors
(I) the supply-side reform will continue to deepen
On January 17, 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on matters related to the implementation of capacity replacement in electrolytic aluminum enterprises by means of mergers and reorganization, in order to define for the first time the time limit for the implementation of capacity replacement of electrolytic aluminium. The electrolytic aluminum production targets required to be closed for 2011-2017 and included in the phase-out announcement must be completed by December 31, 2018, and will not be used for replacement. The supply-side reform of the electrolytic aluminum industry will continue to deepen, and illegal production capacity is expected to accelerate the shutdown. Inventories will also peak down, electrolytic aluminum fundamentals will come to an inflection point. The continued promotion of de-production capacity will effectively alleviate the situation of excess electrolytic aluminum capacity, greatly improve the profitability of the aluminum industry.
(II) upgrading of industries to enhance competitiveness
In addition to deproducing capacity, the government is also working to improve the quality of the electrolytic aluminum industry. In September 2017, the State Council issued guidelines on the implementation of quality improvement actions, which mentioned the need to improve raw materials supply, speed up the supply of steel, cement, and electrolyze aluminum. The successful upgrading of traditional industries such as flat glass and coke will enhance the competitiveness of the aluminum electrolysis industry and enable it to achieve faster development when the infrastructure investment recovers, the electronics industry develops rapidly and the demand side recovers.
(3) "Belt and Road" is conducive to promoting the consumption and export of aluminium.
In many countries along the "Belt and Road" route, the consumption of metals per capita is well below the global average in many stages of development, and the potential for infrastructure construction in the future is huge. The railway traffic, oil pipelines, and industrial buildings along the "Belt and Road" line, Investment in electricity and other infrastructure projects will effectively boost the consumption and export of at least six non-ferrous metals, such as copper, aluminum, lead and zinc.
II. Adverse factors
(I) serious homogenization of products
Because domestic aluminum production technology is not enough, and many manufacturers are unwilling to spend a lot of money on production equipment, the electrolytic cells used do not meet the world's advanced standards. The quality of the aluminum products produced is not particularly good. The quality of the aluminum produced is generally so that it is quite substitutable, and when the product life cycle is relatively short, the market share of the enterprise becomes relatively unstable. Many domestic aluminum enterprises have to go abroad to buy aluminum products that meet their own requirements. On the one hand, the overcapacity, on the other hand, is the lack of competitiveness of the products. Homogenization makes the manufacturers in a state of embattled in all directions.
(II) serious environmental pollution
In the aluminum industry, carbon is used as conductive material, which is used as pre-baked anode for aluminum electrolysis. The main raw material of pre-baked anode is petroleum coke, and sulfur dioxide gas with Aung will be produced in the process of aluminum electrolysis. If enterprises fail to recover waste gas effectively, it will lead to a large amount of sulfur dioxide polluting the air. In addition, The waste from aluminum production is also a serious environmental pollution issue. Many enterprises are unwilling to invest too much money in the sewerage system, and some even discharge industrial residues directly to nearby rivers. Direct pollution of nearby water resources. At present, the domestic environmental pollution situation is very severe, even if the cost of sewage is high, the electrolytic aluminum industry can only improve the level of sewage discharge, in order to achieve sustainable development.
Electrolytic aluminum capacity prediction
China's aluminum electrolytic capacity reached 42.44 million tons in 2016, an increase of 10.56 tons compared with the same period last year, and 45.78 million tons as of October 2017.
Combined with these factors, we expect that China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity will reach 47.09 million tons in 2018, and the composite annual growth rate will be about 2.58 tons between 2018 and 2022 in the next five years, and 52.14 million tons in 2022.